Six remarks on the elections by Joel Neto

  1. The Coalition’s (PSD/CDS/PPM–Center-right coalition) victory in Sunday’s (Feb 4th, 2024) elections was to be expected, and it came about in ways that were also to be expected. In a region that is both conservative and (of course) deeply dependent on the state machine, the forces in power always have the upper hand, and the Azorean system (as it should be, but nobody wants to) delegates the keys to all the coffers to the regional government. There isn’t much difference between the result of the Coalition in 2024 and that of the PS in 2020: the distribution of the remaining votes has changed.
  2. Bolieiro’s achievement lies in his decision – I’m writing this in the early hours of Monday when it still looks like that’s what he’s decided, but his rhetoric remains clumsy – to govern in the minority. It’s a sensible and intelligent choice, which commits the PS to its responsibilities and removes the extreme right from the power equation. It won’t be easy to govern in permanent negotiations, and at this point, it’s hard to imagine the government lasting four years. But with the troublemakers of Chega, it would be much worse. Has anyone forgotten what his constant threats were during the just-ended parliamentary term?
  3. So, if the PS is up to it, the far right has gained a lot of voters but has lost all influence in government. At the moment, Chega is both the biggest winner and the biggest loser on Sunday. As for the winners and losers, the math is intricate. The PSD regains the presidency with shares that don’t guarantee definitive de facto leadership. The CDS remains essentially the same, which may not be enough. The PPM loses weight because of Paulo Estêvão’s copious defeat in Corvo, where he even aspired to be the second deputy (which would have given the government the opportunity to govern with IL and PAN, it should be said).
  4. And everyone else loses, to a greater or lesser degree. The frustration is so widespread that the PS result is even reasonable. If the Socialists had ever expected to win these elections, they would never have presented themselves with Vasco Cordeiro as their leader. Carlos César made a point of sending his son for an internship in Lisbon in search of the political weight and electoral ballast that would allow him to personify Portugal’s first republican dynasty, and he sacrificed the needs of Portugal’s poorest region on that altar, for which he is also to blame. I imagine that Cristina Calisto will follow – I advise you to keep a close eye on her.
  5. The polls failed again. All of them: if they gave the victory to the Coalition, they failed dramatically in the results per island; if they came close to the final count in a significant number of islands, they gave the regional victory to the PS. There is an urgent need to reflect on this instrument and the damage it may be – which it is – imposing on democracy. The electorate’s behavior was the cause of the poll fluctuations and their consequence. The methods must be out of date, and the risks are immense.
  6. To make a national reading of these results is not only cynical but also irresponsible. The Azores have infinite electoral specificities: a large geographical divide, a Compensation Circle that reduces the impact of the system’s virtues, an atavistic resistance to change, an electorate lacking critical mass, and a vulnerable media. Above all, there is still something obscene about removing the focus from what should never cease to be at stake: the urgency of combating our terrible human development indices. Let national civil society realize once and for all that its role is to participate in this scrutiny, not to persist in playing palace-type games.

An opinion piece by writer Joel Neto, published originally in the newspaper Açoriano Oriental, Rui Paiva-director. Joel Neto’s most recent book Jénifer ou a Princesa Francesa, dealt with many of the social ills that continue to afflict the Azores. The book has been translated into English and will be released by Bruma Publications in the US and Letras Lavadas in the Azores. 

Translated to English as a community outreach program from the Portuguese Beyond Borders Institute (PBBI) and the Modern and Classical Languages and Cultures Department (MCLL) as part of Bruma Publication and ADMA (Azores-Diaspora Media Alliance)  at California State University, Fresno–PBBI thanks the sponsorship of the Luso-American Development Foundation from Lisbon, Portugal (FLAD)