A projection by the National Statistics Institute (INE) reveals that, by the end of the century, the Azores will experience a population decline, falling from the current 241,763 people to 122,831, assuming no migration occurs.
The INE’s most pessimistic estimate projects the archipelago’s population to be 75,347 people in 2100, with an average projection of 146,971, and the most optimistic estimate at 217,315 people.
According to the same figures, the coming decades are expected to also mean that the Azores will transition from one of the youngest regions in the country to an aging population. In the case of the projection without migration, the region would have 50,726 people aged 65 or over by 2100.
The scenario is also not positive in terms of the fertility rate (the average number of children a woman has during her lifetime). The rate was calculated at 1.22 in 2024, with the best scenario being 1.35 in 2100. As for life expectancy at birth, which in 2024 was 74.87 years for men and 81.50 years for women in the archipelago, the most generous projection is 88.37 years for men and 93.94 years for women. The average estimate is 86.51 years for men and 92.02 years for women.
The highest projection for the Azores in terms of net migration (the difference between the number of people entering as immigrants and the number of people leaving as emigrants) is 1,145 people at the end of the century, calculated at 1,276 in 2024.
The country as a whole faces a demographic future marked by population decline and aging, according to projections by the INE, which indicate a reduction in population from the current 10.7 million to just 8.3 million by 2100.

The decline will be across all age groups, particularly among young people (aged 0 to 14), whose numbers are expected to fall from 1.4 million to around 1 million. The elderly population (aged 65 and over) is expected to increase from 2.6 million to 3.1 million.
“Although in all scenarios, demographic aging will occur in all regions, it may be more pronounced in the Autonomous Region of the Azores, the Northern Region, and the Autonomous Region of Madeira,” says INE.
According to the projection with average values, the aging index (the number of elderly people per 100 young people) is expected to increase in the Azores. As of 2024, the Azores had 128 elderly people per 100 young people, with this number projected to rise to 405 by the end of the century. In the Autonomous Region of Madeira, the index is expected to rise from 179 to 442, while the North will experience the largest increase, from 205 in 2024 to 475 in 2100. This demographic evolution also changes the map of regional aging. In 2024, the Central Region was the most aged in the country, but in 2100, it will be surpassed by the North Region. On the other hand, the Algarve will become the least aged region, replacing the Azores, which occupied that position in 2024.
The Setúbal Peninsula, Greater Lisbon, and the Algarve, which had the highest youth dependency ratio in 2024, will also have the highest number of young people per 100 working-age people in 2100.
The Azores and Madeira, “which in 2024 had the lowest number of elderly people per 100 people of working age (26 and 32, respectively), may have, in 2100, in the central scenario, an elderly dependency ratio of 84 and 87, respectively, surpassed only by the North (with 97 elderly people per 100 people aged 15 to 64),” according to INE.

Translated into English as a community outreach program by the Portuguese Beyond Borders Institute (PBBI) and the Modern and Classical Languages and Literatures Department (MCLL), in collaboration with Bruma Publication and ADMA (Azores-Diaspora Media Alliance) at California State University, Fresno. PBBI thanks Luso Financial for sponsoring NOVIDADES.