As in the rest of the country, the big question mark hanging over Sunday’s elections in the Azores is how far Chega will go.

In the elections for the Assembly of the Republic last May, Chega was the only party to increase its number of votes, winning 2 of the 19 municipalities and 25 of the 156 parishes, 12 of which were in Ponta Delgada, corresponding to half of the municipality, becoming the second most voted political force.

José Pacheco is staking his own reputation on his candidacy in Ponta Delgada, after having already run in Lagoa four years ago with a poor result.

Will voters’ anger with traditional parties, as seen in the national elections, be reflected in Sunday’s local elections?

Everything suggests that it will not, because in local elections, the voters’ first choice is not always the party, but rather the profile of the candidates and how close each one is to their localities.

The most likely scenario is that Chega will make a dent in these elections, but it would be a complete surprise if it were to win any municipal councils.

This phenomenon has been tested in several European countries, where the far right or populists have achieved great results in national elections but have failed to gain a foothold at the local level, especially in large cities or major urban centers.

However, the history of local elections in the Azores teaches us, at least in the last 16 years, that there is always a surprise on election night, with almost unexpected changes, as has already happened in Vila do Porto, Ribeira Grande, Nordeste, and Praia da Vitória.

Next Sunday, some surprises are to be expected, because the electoral scenario this year is very different from four years ago, with fragmentation appearing to be more pronounced. It is very likely that even in bastion municipalities, absolute majorities will disappear.

One thing is certain: given the way the political forces have presented themselves in this campaign, there will be many interpretations on election night, and practically everyone will say they won in their own way.

Ponta Delgada, Lagoa, Vila Franca, Angra do Heroísmo, Praia da Vitória, and the two municipalities of Flores are, from the outset, the most interesting municipalities to follow on election night, for different reasons and also because of the results obtained by Chega last May.

Of course, these are different elections, but it is legitimate to question whether the angry voters of May will repeat their protest against the PSD and PS on Sunday.

While in Ponta Delgada, Chega pushed the PS into third place, winning a dozen rural parishes; the PSD remained in first place thanks to the city parishes.

The fact that the PS is running in Ponta Delgada, divided between the forced candidacy of Isabel Rodrigues and former socialist Sónia Nicolau, removes any chance of the socialists winning the “crown jewel,” and they may even obtain a humiliating result.

The PS has traditionally been the opposition force to the PSD in Ponta Delgada, with a margin of only 6 percentage points in the 2021 local elections, where the BE held third place. However, this time, changes are expected in these positions, primarily due to the BE’s coalition with the PS.

The municipality of Lagoa, which was one of the surprises on national election night with the result obtained by Chega, will be another unknown in terms of voter behavior, where Chega won in 4 of the 5 parishes.

Vila Franca, where Chega also won, is another municipality to watch closely, not least because there is no incumbent candidate.

In addition to Vila Franca, other municipal councils will see changes in presidency as their current presidents have reached the end of their terms.

This is the case in Ribeira Grande, Angra do Heroísmo, Calheta, Velas, Santa Cruz das Flores, Lajes das Flores, Madalena, and Corvo. There may be no changes in political color, but it is still an opportunity for those who have been in opposition in recent years.

In the 2021 elections, the PSD managed to hold on to the municipalities it already held, where the big unknown was the result that Chega could achieve, after electing two deputies in the previous year’s regional elections, which served to make Bolieiro’s government viable.

Another significant difference is that, in that year, Chega presented only eight candidates in the 19 municipalities, while this year it is running in all of them, albeit with many lists of candidates “imported” from the mainland.

Finally, another expectation in these elections will be the performance of the PS, the winning party in the last local elections in 2021, with nine municipal councils against eight for the PSD and its coalition, but which was already in free fall, having lost three municipalities.

The Socialists have always had a strong presence in local government in recent decades, which could help them hold on to some councils next Sunday.

Suppose they lose and get a bad result in Ponta Delgada. In that case, it will be more bad news for Francisco César’s leadership, accused by his own peers of not knowing how to manage the Ponta Delgada candidacy process.

No electoral disaster is predicted for next Sunday, but it will be interesting to see how the electorate behaves in the face of a new regional reality.

For José Manuel Bolieiro’s coalition, retaining its existing seats and potentially gaining some from the PS would constitute a significant electoral triumph, given the current unpopularity of regional governance, as evidenced by widespread criticism and discontent with its performance.

In fact, the clumsy way in which it managed the privatization of SATA was very subtly pushed back until after Sunday. However, it should be noted that if the final disaster of the process is confirmed, the Regional Government, with Duarte Freitas and Berta Cabral at the helm, must face consequences.

As for the pre-campaign and campaign in general, both were atypical, with little popular support and no spark.

Apart from a few dodgy posters and completely absurd, unrealistic promises that border on the ridiculous, mixed in with a few oddball candidates, if it weren’t for the debates on RTP-Açores and the coverage in the regional press, citizens would not even know who the candidates are.

The electoral tension this year was higher, given the introduction of a more populist discourse, with unpalatable discussions, such as some television debates, and a lot of demagoguery on the loose, where promises were even made to give people money to buy houses or medicines, as if this were a function of local authorities. Some candidates demonstrated a profound ignorance of how local government works, while others made proposals as if we lived in Dubai and there were oil in their respective municipalities, some of which are bankrupt due to the ruinous accounts of their municipal companies.

Another conclusion to be drawn from this election campaign is the continued decline in the quality of candidates, increasingly leveled down, as had already been noted in the regional elections.

All of this could contribute to higher abstention (45% in 2021), which is still one of the lowest in all elections.

Those who study mass behavior know that, in times of tension, extremism tends to be stronger.

What we are experiencing worldwide, the crises and wars, the “scandals” and “affairs” in domestic politics, the insulting and hateful environment amplified on social media, all contribute to more extreme behavior in society, which was visible in this campaign and may be reflected at the polls.

As the ‘Queen’ of Flores, Gabriela Silva, says, “with the world in chaos, local power is a kind of oasis for residents (…). It would be very interesting if, after this period of conflict, we could all row in the same direction, putting the collective interest above the individual.”

There are also some positive signs in this year’s electoral process, such as the increasing emergence of many young people and independent movements, proving that the electoral system for regional and national elections needs to be changed.

The party oligarchy has so far prevented any change in the system, but with each election, they may wake up to reality.

There is a kind of ‘wokism’ in the party apparatus against citizens and those who think for themselves. They prefer the party herd and blind obedience to the all-powerful leader. They could learn from the local government, where the system is more generous to the people and inspiring for the regime.

Democracy is grateful.

In Diário Insular

Osvaldo Cabral is an emeritus journalist with over 40 years of experience covering the Azores. He was the director of RTP-A (the public television station) and the Diário dos Açores newspaper. He is a regular columnist for many newspapers throughout the Azpres and the Diaspora.

NOVIDADES will feature occasional opinion pieces from various leading thinkers and writers in the Azores, providing the diaspora and those interested in the current state of the Azores with insight into the diverse opinions on some of the archipelago’s key issues.

Translated to English as a community outreach program from the Portuguese Beyond Borders Institute (PBBI) and the Modern and Classical Languages and Literatures Department (MCLL).