The Ryanair affair has reignited a debate that, in truth, never really went away: what kind of tourism do we want for the Azores, and what model of development are we willing to adopt? It is the eternal clash between advantages and disadvantages, risks and revenues, “quality tourism” versus “low-cost tourism,” whatever that may be. On one side, and I include myself in this camp, there are those who see tourism as one of the fundamental pillars of the archipelago’s economic development. On the other, there are those who see tourism as the source of all contemporary ills, from inflation to gentrification, from pressure on the territory’s carrying capacity to the massification of the destination.

The most curious thing is that opinion polls conducted in recent years show that the vast majority of Azoreans, after all, tend to have a generally positive view of tourism. Residents consistently recognize the sector’s contribution to employment, the economy, disposable income, and investment. They go even further, valuing the impact of tourism on cultural offerings, crafts, and heritage. Naturally, they also identify risks, such as rising prices, a shortage of affordable housing, and pressure on the landscape and natural resources. But, in general, the public perception of tourism is itself balanced and informed.

Even more interesting is that many respondents point to planning, or the lack thereof, as the determining factor for the success or failure of tourism. In other words, the Azoreans recognize that tourism sustainability is directly linked to the ability to plan, regulate, and anticipate. And this is precisely where the Ryanair episode comes in.

To understand where we are and how we got here, we need to go back to 2015, when the liberalization, or more precisely, the “semi-liberalization” of the Lisbon/Porto–Ponta Delgada/Terceira routes began. I remember that period well because I was then Promotion Coordinator for ATA/VisitAzores and was following, albeit from the sidelines, the discussions between two sides that seemed irreconcilable. On one side was Passos Coelho’s ultra-liberal post-troika government, with the unforgettable Secretary of State for Transport, Sérgio Monteiro. On the other, Vasco Cordeiro’s first government, with Vítor Fraga in charge of Tourism and Transport.

The Republic advocated the total opening of the market, based on a purely ideological logic and completely ignorant of the local reality, seeing liberalization as the key to increasing flows and boosting the economy. The Region, for its part, feared the impact on residents’ mobility, schedules, minimum services, fares, and, of course, the survival of SATA, already in a difficult and weak position. But for us, the technicians on the ground, there was yet another concern: the destination’s real capacity to absorb a sudden increase in demand. Would we have enough supply? Human resources? Structures? Adequate legislation? In other words, would the archipelago be prepared for a liberalizing shock such as that proposed by Minister Pires de Lima with his anarcho-capitalist arrogance?

And this brings us to the present and Ryanair’s announced, or threatened, departure from the Azores. In 2015, the nine islands had a total of around 12,500 beds. Today, there are more than 40,000, and they continue to grow. An increase of 220% in just ten years. Air connections have gone from 8 companies to 14 (+75%), but the mainland routes have changed little. Ryanair and EasyJet entered, the latter leaving soon after, and now Ryanair is threatening to leave. In the same period, the number of guests rose from 400,000 and 1.2 million overnight stays to 1.2 million guests and 4 million overnight stays. Growth of 200% and 230%, respectively. Meanwhile, ATA, now known as VisitAzores, saw its budget drop from 60 million to around 15 million, a 75% decrease.

These figures, which may seem dry, show two things: first, that we grew too fast, and second, that we invested poorly. And the concern we had in 2015 was confirmed: the destination became structurally fragile, highly dependent on a few players, and overly exposed to external fluctuations.

Being a sustainable destination in an archipelago depends first and foremost on airplanes. Without airplanes, there are no tourists; without tourists, there is no destination. But it also depends on the quality of the offer, the preservation of resources, the diversification of markets, and the quality of life of residents. This is not about demonizing tourism; I myself live off it. It is about recognizing that we have grown in an unbalanced way, driven by ambition, in some cases by pure greed, and without a plan for the “day after.”

In economics, there is an interesting concept called the “growth illusion.” Basically, rising numbers mask profound deterioration. Growth does not, in itself, mean development. For example, increasing the number of beds is not the same as increasing value. Multiplying overnight stays does not guarantee wealth, nor its redistribution, nor the well-being of the communities living in the destination. When statistical growth overlaps with real development, it paves the way for dangerous economic regressions. As we all know…

And that is exactly what happened to us. As this current episode demonstrates to exhaustion. The proliferation of accommodation, more than half of it in Local Accommodation, was not accompanied by stable air links, diversified markets, or consistent promotion. A tourism ecosystem was created in which supply depends on a very thin and vulnerable thread. And all it took was a sneeze from Mr. O’Leary to give the entire region a cold.

Recently, a helping hand sent me an opinion piece from Dinheiro Vivo arguing that Ryanair’s departure could be positive, allowing the Azores to become an exclusive destination, geared towards “quality” tourism. In the abstract, we all agree with this ambition. In practice, that ship sailed in 2015, when a growth model based exclusively on quantity was chosen. It was a political and ideological choice, led by Pires de Lima and Sérgio Monteiro, assisted, on the tourism side, by Adolfo Mesquita Nunes, of good memory, it must be said, and João Cotrim de Figueiredo, astonishingly. The result was the consolidation of a model that cannot be reversed with a snap of the fingers or by mere opinion.

Today, with the number of beds, restaurants, and services available, and with increasingly marked seasonality, we cannot afford sudden drops in demand without causing profound damage to the local economy, an economy that has not yet fully recovered from the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic.

It is also worth dispelling a myth. Low-cost passengers are not synonymous with “penny-pinching” passengers. They are often informed travelers who prefer to pay less for their trip so they can spend more at their destination. Low-cost airlines balance prices, combat seasonality, expand markets, and ensure sufficient flow to sustain the entire tourism chain, from urban hostels to themed boutique hotels.

The idea of transforming the Azores into an “Atlantic Riviera” is a nice utopia, but unrealistic in the short term. We don’t have the climate, we don’t yet have the supply, and no one is willing to invest for a decade to make this ideal happen while, in the immediate term, restaurants, hotels, and entertainment companies are closing their doors, throwing dozens, if not hundreds, of people into unemployment. The only possible path is diversification. Multiple markets, multiple tourist profiles, and multiple air connections, some of which, preferably more than one, must be low-cost.

The future of tourism in the Azores is not built on ideological romanticism, but on pragmatism. With our feet on the ground, our sleeves rolled up, and a clear strategy. It is not low-cost airlines that devalue us; it is our inability to create a destination so solid that no low-cost airline feels comfortable abandoning us.

Pedro Arruda is a regular contributor to Azorean newspapers. We are thankful that he agreed to have his op-ed translated and available to our readers.

NOVIDADES will feature occasional opinion pieces from leading thinkers and writers in the Azores, providing the diaspora and those interested in the current state of the Azores with a sense of the significant perspectives on some of the archipelago’s issues.

Translated to English as a community outreach program from the Portuguese Beyond Borders Institute (PBBI) and the Modern and Classical Languages and Literatures Department (MCLL).

You can follow his writings in Portuguese online on: https://azoreansplendor.blogspot.com/