The Regional Government of the Azores has once again found itself entangled in a predicament of its own making.

This time, it has proven unable to reverse the unexpected downturn in tourism across the Region—despite the warning signs already visible at the height of summer—thus failing yet another of its stated commitments: the reduction of seasonality. Only two years ago, in presenting the Strategic Tourism and Marketing Plan, Berta Cabral assured the public that combating seasonality was a “declared priority,” alongside a more balanced distribution of visitor flows among the islands.

Two years later, the promise rings hollow. The data now points unmistakably toward failure: five consecutive months of decline, with the full impact of Ryanair’s departure still looming at the end of this month. The downturn becomes even more alarming when one looks at the final months of 2025—from September through December—during which the Region recorded 5,500 fewer guests and 19,000 fewer overnight stays compared to the same period the previous year. This stands in stark contrast to the preceding year, when that same quarter saw an increase of 33,000 guests and 130,000 overnight stays.

The warning signs had already surfaced during last summer. Growth slowed sharply, registering a modest 5 percent increase—just 2 percent in August—driven primarily by foreign visitors (+8%), while domestic tourism recorded an unprecedented decline (-0.6%). Alarm bells should have sounded within the Secretariat of Tourism. The moment called for urgency, for strategy, for a coordinated effort to reinforce programming and promotion during the winter months.

Instead, the opposite occurred. Funding for promotion was reduced. Ryanair was not retained. No viable alternatives were developed. And when the Region arrived at the Lisbon Tourism Exchange (BTL), it did so without a clear roadmap for the future—offering, in its place, the curious announcement of a Terceira–Funchal route, unveiled with ceremonial enthusiasm by Artur Lima and Berta Cabral in what appeared to be a staged reconciliation between the Vice-President and SATA.

It is worth recalling that only months earlier, the CDS had sharply criticized the regional airline over its Christmas operations, accusing Berta Cabral of lacking sympathy for Terceira and declaring that “SATA does not belong to Berta Cabral.” Now, side by side at the SATA pavilion, the two figures once again revealed their discord—this time over Public Service Obligations (PSOs) for non-liberalized islands. While the Regional Secretary praised the Republic’s government for finally approving the PSOs, the Vice-President dismissed it as no favor and renewed his attacks over the mishandling of the Social Mobility Subsidy.

Amid rhetorical flourishes and political theatrics, Artur Lima delivered pointed messages to both José Manuel Bolieiro and Miguel Albuquerque, urging them to move beyond island summits and implement concrete measures, and to cease indulging what he described as a “stale and suffocating centralism.” As one of the most seasoned political figures still active, he speaks with the authority of experience when he calls for greater firmness—a sentiment echoed daily in the public square.

The impending departure of Ryanair will have a profound impact not only on tourist flows but also on the accessibility of residents. To this is now added the destabilizing effect of war—a convergence of pressures that amounts to a perfect storm.

There is, to be sure, a glimmer of opportunity. Tourism flows once directed toward the Middle East are now being redirected toward the West, potentially benefiting alternative European destinations such as the Azores. Yet this possibility is overshadowed by a harsher reality: war brings economic consequences. Rising oil prices threaten inflation, and inflation will reverberate throughout the entire tourism chain.

If the destination was already becoming expensive, one can only imagine the compounded effect of inflation, the loss of a low-cost carrier, and a return to dependence on SATA and TAP—echoing the conditions of 2014. The difference, however, is stark: both airlines are now in a more fragile state than they were a decade ago, burdened by financial instability and ongoing privatization processes.

What emerges is not merely a setback, but a regression—an unexpected return to a past many believed had been overcome. It is a scenario that leads, inevitably, to the very “dramatic pessimism” that Bolieiro sought to dismiss.

That optimism was swiftly contradicted by the January statistics—a cold and sobering counterpoint to the celebratory tone displayed by government officials and local leaders at the BTL, where large delegations, accompanied by the familiar offerings of liqueurs and biscuits, masked what now appears to be the early signs of a serious economic crisis in the Azores.

For what is at stake is not simply the safeguarding of an important economic sector. It is, as well, the political survival of José Manuel Bolieiro—and of the coalition he leads.

Osvaldo Cabral is an emeritus journalist with over 40 years of experience covering the Azores. He was the director of RTP-A (the public television station) and the Diário dos Açores newspaper. He is a regular columnist for many newspapers throughout the Azpres and the Diaspora.

NOVIDADES will feature occasional opinion pieces from various leading thinkers and writers in the Azores, providing the diaspora and those interested in the current state of the Azores with insight into the diverse opinions on some of the archipelago’s key issues.

Translated to English as a community outreach program from the Portuguese Beyond Borders Institute (PBBI) and the Modern and Classical Languages and Literatures Department (MCLL).