Aviation Analyst Says Ryanair’s Winter Capacity Has Been Replaced—But Questions Remain About Market Competition in the Azores.

The withdrawal of Ryanair’s winter operations from the Azores has generated considerable debate about whether the Region’s air connectivity will truly remain unchanged. According to Pedro Castro, aviation, tourism, and airport strategy consultant and director of SkyExpert Consulting, the answer depends not only on the number of available airline seats but also on how Azores Airlines chooses to deploy and market that capacity.

In an interview with Diário dos Açores, Castro argues that while the airline has succeeded in replacing much of Ryanair’s capacity on paper, the real test will be whether those seats remain focused on serving Azorean residents and visitors rather than supporting the carrier’s broader transatlantic strategy.

“To say that Ryanair’s capacity has been ‘replaced’ only makes sense if Azores Airlines also adjusts its commercial strategy to genuinely prioritize traffic to and from the Azores,” he said.

According to Castro, Ryanair had already become a relatively small player in the Azorean winter market. Beginning in the winter of 2023, the Irish low-cost carrier reduced its seasonal operations by approximately 65 percent, cutting arrivals from 502 flights to just 177, while available seats fell dramatically from nearly 95,000 to approximately 33,000.

During the 2025–2026 winter season, Ryanair operated 193 arrivals to Ponta Delgada and Terceira, offering roughly 37,000 seats from Lisbon and Porto. Those flights will disappear entirely during the upcoming 2026–2027 winter schedule.

Because of that reduced scale, Castro believes replacing Ryanair’s winter operation is considerably easier than replacing its much larger summer presence.

On the Ponta Delgada–Lisbon route, Azores Airlines is expected to add nearly 20,000 seats, while TAP Air Portugal will contribute another 2,000. Nevertheless, total capacity will still remain approximately 6.5 percent below the record levels of the 2022–2023 winter season, representing about 13,000 fewer seats.

That shortfall, Castro notes, comes at a time when hotel capacity in the Azores has expanded significantly, making every available airline seat increasingly important to the Region’s tourism industry.

The picture is more challenging on the Ponta Delgada–Porto route. Although Azores Airlines plans to add approximately 8,000 seats, the increase does not fully offset the nearly 12,000 seats lost with Ryanair’s departure. Overall capacity on the route will continue to trail the 2022–2023 winter season by roughly 6.4 percent.

On Terceira, the situation varies by destination. Flights between Terceira and Lisbon will remain largely stable, thanks to an increase of approximately 8,000 seats by Azores Airlines combined with TAP maintaining its existing service. Even so, total capacity will still stand about 13 percent below the levels recorded during the 2022–2023 winter season.

Service between Terceira and Porto, however, presents a more optimistic outlook. While Ryanair’s withdrawal removes roughly 8,000 seats, the introduction of TAP’s new Porto–Terceira route, together with additional capacity from Azores Airlines, will more than compensate for those losses. Castro believes this could lead to record numbers of visitors from northern Portugal choosing Terceira during the winter months.

To create this additional domestic capacity, Azores Airlines has significantly reallocated aircraft within its network.

Compared with the previous winter schedule, the airline has suspended flights between Ponta Delgada and Barcelona, as well as Paris, eliminating approximately 10,000 international seats. Capacity between Boston and Ponta Delgada has also been reduced by around 3,000 seats, while service between Faro and Ponta Delgada has been trimmed by approximately 2,000 seats. Operations to Canada and Cape Verde remain largely unchanged.

According to Castro, this redistribution of aircraft has enabled the airline to absorb much of the capacity left vacant by Ryanair while potentially improving its own financial performance.

However, he cautions that capacity statistics alone do not tell the full story.

For several years, Azores Airlines pursued a commercial strategy focused on attracting passengers from mainland Portugal who were connecting through Ponta Delgada to destinations in North America. To make those itineraries competitive, the airline frequently relied on deeply discounted fares while also operating an unusually high number of leased aircraft—factors that contributed to significant financial losses in previous years.

Ryanair, by contrast, focused almost exclusively on the local market between mainland Portugal and the Azores, particularly serving tourists and point-to-point travelers rather than connecting passengers.

This distinction, Castro argues, is crucial.

On routes such as Ponta Delgada–Porto, Azores Airlines will once again operate as the sole carrier, effectively restoring a monopoly. While the number of available seats may appear sufficient statistically, he warns that reduced competition could eventually influence pricing, making the Azores less competitive as a tourism destination if fares rise significantly.

For that reason, Castro believes the success of replacing Ryanair cannot be measured solely by capacity figures.

“The replacement exists in terms of available seats compared with last winter,” he concludes. “But it will only become a true replacement if Azores Airlines adopts a commercial strategy that genuinely prioritizes travel to and from the Azores, rather than using the limited number of available seats primarily to feed an ambitious transatlantic hub.”

In his view, the coming winter season will therefore test not simply the airline’s scheduling decisions, but its broader commercial strategy—and whether increased capacity ultimately benefits the residents, businesses, and tourism sector of the Azores.

Based on a story in Diário dos Açores-Paulo Viveiros, director. Photo from DA.