In the Azores, even political crises unfold at their own peculiar rhythm: they begin with a light drizzle, gather dark clouds, and inevitably end in a storm.

The last rites now openly declared by José Manuel Bolieiro — long anticipated within party headquarters — may well represent the PSD’s final flicker of hope for returning to electoral victory, because he will almost certainly campaign as an alternative to the very coalition he once led.

The argument may sound strange, but many voters deep within the party’s traditional base still believe this government unraveled because Bolieiro was perpetually constrained by his coalition partners.

In truth, there were three governments all along.

What remains to be seen is whether the PSD still has time — or even the will — to prolong this political calvary for another two years.

It must be acknowledged that the coalition began well. It promised reform, introduced measures that helped boost mobility and stimulate the economy. But then it fell asleep at the wheel, invited the wrong protagonists into government, committed a succession of blunders, and allowed itself to become entangled in internal factions protecting their own clienteles.

This second Bolieiro administration was never truly a government. It became a raft without sails, with three castaways rowing in different directions.

Faced with such disorder, what one might have expected from the opposition in the next parliamentary session would have been a motion of censure, not a confidence motion, as challenged by Chega.

But no one wants to carry the burden of bringing down the government and triggering new elections.

At the same time, it serves the PS politically to let this process of governmental erosion continue, buying more time for its new leader, who has yet to discover the right path to persuade the electorate.

If Francisco César made the mistake of taking his seat in the Portuguese Parliament while neglecting regional leadership, he now has an opportunity to suspend his mandate and return full-time to the party’s internal leadership rather than governing only on weekends.

As for the coalition itself, if it was already weakened and lacking popular credibility, it is now in tatters, carrying the unmistakable seal of eventual extinction.

From this point forward, the Azores will face a fragile administration, increasingly unpopular and beyond the possibility of renewal.

Instead of thinking about a cabinet reshuffle, Bolieiro should already be considering how he intends to untangle this crisis after the summer — especially because, as we know, it is hardly credible that the new President of the Republic would accept the government’s resignation if the next Budget and Plan were rejected.

The fall of the government is not inevitable, and António José Seguro, who favors stability, could rely on the new budgetary framework law, which grants governments greater room to operate through provisional monthly budgeting.

It seems increasingly likely that Bolieiro himself will eventually have to resign, arguing that he no longer possesses the conditions necessary to govern.

Yet it does not appear that the opposition will grant him that escape route. In this new political landscape, it has realized that greater electoral rewards may come from allowing the government to continue dragging itself through this self-consuming erosion.

The failures of this coalition — and they are many — continue to reverberate throughout the lives of Azoreans: the disastrous privatization of SATA Air Açores, the scandalous delays in restoring the Hospital do Divino Espírito Santo, the departure of Ryanair, the sharp decline in tourism, the rising cost of living, increasingly difficult access to healthcare as waiting lists return to old levels, the government’s weakness regarding the shameful new version of the Social Mobility Subsidy, and the delays in revising the Regional Finance Law — in short, everything moving backward.

The latest display of disorientation came with rising fuel prices and the President of the Government declaring himself “concerned.”

Concerned by a measure implemented by his own government.

They might have learned something from the Government of Madeira, which, as early as April 6 at the onset of the fuel crisis, had already introduced a package of support measures for families and businesses, guaranteeing that fuel prices would never exceed those on the mainland.

During the financial crisis of 2012 and throughout the pandemic, the regional governments of that time adopted extraordinary measures to overcome extraordinary circumstances.

One cannot discern the direction of this coalition in the face of today’s energy crisis, just as no one ever truly understood what direction it hoped to give the Azores over these past two years.

Enough, perhaps, to say that the Azorean people have every reason to wish this coalition: peace to its soul.

Osvaldo Cabral is an emeritus journalist with over 40 years of experience covering the Azores. He was the director of RTP-A (the public television station) and the Diário dos Açores newspaper. He is a regular columnist for many newspapers throughout the Azpres and the Diaspora.

NOVIDADES will feature occasional opinion pieces from various leading thinkers and writers in the Azores, providing the diaspora and those interested in the current state of the Azores with insight into the diverse opinions on some of the archipelago’s key issues.

Translated to English as a community outreach program from the Portuguese Beyond Borders Institute (PBBI) and the Modern and Classical Languages and Literatures Department (MCLL).